bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TOR 3 – BOS 0
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR002000010380
BOS000000000070
Team box
TOR·BOS
8
hits
7
0
home runs
0
0
walks
7
10
strikeouts
6
155
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-4002
Andres GimenezTOR2-4201
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-5000
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4000
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS1-2000
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braydon FisherTOR1.10020
Simeon Woods Richardson (W)TOR3.03031
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00003
Jake Bennett (L)BOS5.13205

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · TOR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, BOS 51% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.1 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
8.2
Blue JaysThe matchupRed Sox
+103Our fair odds−103
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.05Power rating+0.01
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.1
8.4Hits / game8.3
0.99Home runs / game0.84
2.9Walks drawn / game2.9
35−38Season record29−41
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi50.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10349%−10350.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10351%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORBraydon Fisher RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BOS
Jun 16 at BOS
last game
Jun 16 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
TOR·BOS
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.1
35−38
season record
29−41
21−18
home record
12−23
14−20
away record
17−18
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.3
0.99
home runs / game
0.84
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.60
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TOR · BOS · 84 days
Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jun 16at BOSTOR 6 − 1
Apr 29at TORTOR 8 − 1
Apr 28at TORTOR 3 − 0
Apr 27at TORBOS 5 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at TORBOS 4 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BOSTOR 5 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at BOSBOS 15 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at BOSTOR 9 − 0

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 16at BOS6 − 1W
Jun 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Jun 13vs NYY1 − 3L
Jun 12vs NYY8 − 5W
Jun 10vs PHI4 − 7L
Jun 9vs PHI3 − 2W
Jun 8vs PHI2 − 5L
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 16vs TOR1 − 6L
Jun 14vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 13vs TEX6 − 3W
Jun 12vs TEX10 − 1W
Jun 10at TB5 − 7L
Jun 9at TB3 − 4L
Jun 8at TB1 − 3L
Jun 7at NYY1 − 6L
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L