bayesRatings

Phillies at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, Jun 8 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final PHI 5 – TOR 2
← MLB / Jun 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI023000000571
TOR001010000261
Team box
PHI·TOR
7
hits
6
1
home runs
1
5
walks
2
8
strikeouts
11
136
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adolis GarciaPHI1-4112
Ernie ClementTOR2-4111
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4001
Alec BohmPHI1-3001
Bryson StottPHI1-3101
Yohendrick PinangoTOR1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI7.042110
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01000
Patrick Corbin (L)TOR3.04543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · PHI 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, TOR 50% · Updated Jun 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.3 – 4.3 PHI
Expected total
8.7
PhilliesThe matchupBlue Jays
+101Our fair odds−101
4.3Expected runs4.3
+0.10Power rating+0.06
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.26Home runs / game0.95
3.0Walks drawn / game2.8
35−30Season record32−34
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · TOR chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10150%−17563.6%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10150%+14640.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia PhilliesPKour margin————
TORToronto Blue JaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more36%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 0.41 ERA, 23 Kstarted
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·TOR
Jun 7 vs CHW
last game
Jun 7 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
PHI·TOR
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
35−30
season record
32−34
19−17
home record
19−14
16−13
away record
13−20
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.26
home runs / game
0.95
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.45
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

PHI · TOR · 75 days
Philadelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Jun 15, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 4
Jun 14, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at TORPHI 8 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at TORPHI 4 − 2
Sep 3, 2024at TORPHI 10 − 9
May 8, 2024at PHITOR 5 − 3
May 7, 2024at PHIPHI 10 − 1

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 7vs CHW9 − 5W
Jun 6vs CHW3 − 6L
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L
May 31at BAL5 − 9L
May 30at BAL5 − 6L
May 29at BAL6 − 5W
May 28at BAL2 − 1W