bayesRatings

Padres at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final SD 2 – PHI 3
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD002000000270
PHI00020100390
Team box
SD·PHI
7
hits
9
1
home runs
1
1
walks
4
12
strikeouts
5
130
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI1-3212
Gavin SheetsSD1-4112
Brandon MarshPHI4-4000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-4100
Trea TurnerPHI2-4100
Miguel AndujarSD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy VasquezSD5.05213
Jeremiah Estrada (L)SD1.01111
Aaron NolaPHI5.04208
Jose Alvarado (W)PHI1.00000
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · SD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.0 – 3.8 SD
Expected total
7.8
PadresThe matchupPhillies
+109Our fair odds−109
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating+0.08
3.9Runs / game3.9
4.0Allowed / game4.3
7.1Hits / game7.5
1.03Home runs / game1.22
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
32−26Season record30−29
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10948%+12444.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10952%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more36%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 5 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·PHI
May 31 at WSH
last game
May 31 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
SD·PHI
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.9
runs / game
3.9
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
32−26
season record
30−29
16−16
home record
14−16
16−10
away record
16−13
L2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.1
hits / game
7.5
1.03
home runs / game
1.22
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.31
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

SD · PHI · 69 days
San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
May 27at SDPHI 3 − 0
May 26at SDPHI 4 − 3
May 25at SDPHI 3 − 0
Jul 13, 2025at SDPHI 2 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at PHISD 6 − 4
Jun 30, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 0
Jun 19, 2024at PHISD 5 − 2

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 31at WSH2 − 4L
May 30at WSH4 − 9L
May 29at WSH7 − 5W
May 27vs PHI0 − 3L
May 26vs PHI3 − 4L
May 25vs PHI0 − 3L
May 24vs ATH2 − 5L
May 23vs ATH2 − 0W
May 22vs ATH7 − 3W
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L