bayesRatings

Padres at Nationals

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final SD 7 – WSH 5
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD1012012007101
WSH211010000592
Team box
SD·WSH
10
hits
9
2
home runs
2
4
walks
6
5
strikeouts
8
167
pitches thrown
184
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Curtis MeadWSH2-4212
Ty FranceSD2-3211
Jackson MerrillSD1-4112
Keibert RuizWSH2-4111
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-5101
Manny MachadoSD1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lucas GiolitoSD2.25441
Jeremiah Estrada (W)SD1.11002
Mason Miller (S)SD1.10022
Paxton SchultzWSH1.02111
Mitchell Parker (L)WSH2.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · SD 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 53%, WSH 47% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
SD by 0.9
Expected score
SD 5.5 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
10.0
PadresThe matchupNationals
−115Our fair odds+115
5.5Expected runs4.5
+0.08Power rating−0.11
3.9Runs / game5.4
3.9Allowed / game5.4
7.1Hits / game8.5
1.00Home runs / game1.26
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
31−24Season record29−28
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · WSH chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11553%−10350.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11547%−12154.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.9
SDSan Diego Padres−0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.9 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byWSH wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more45%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDLucas Giolito SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 8 Kstarted
WSHPaxton Schultz RP · last 2 starts: 4.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·WSH
May 27 vs PHI
last game
May 27 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
SD·WSH
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
3.9
runs / game
5.4
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.4
31−24
season record
29−28
16−16
home record
10−16
15−8
away record
19−12
L4
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.1
hits / game
8.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.26
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.29
errors / game
0.88

Rating Trend

SD · WSH · 65 days
San Diego PadresWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 2−8
Jul 20, 2025at WSHSD 8 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at WSHSD 7 − 2
Jun 25, 2025at SDSD 1 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 23, 2025at SDWSH 10 − 6
Jul 25, 2024at WSHSD 3 − 0
Jul 24, 2024at WSHSD 12 − 3
Jul 23, 2024at WSHSD 4 − 0
Jun 26, 2024at SDSD 8 − 5

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 27vs PHI0 − 3L
May 26vs PHI3 − 4L
May 25vs PHI0 − 3L
May 24vs ATH2 − 5L
May 23vs ATH2 − 0W
May 22vs ATH7 − 3W
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L
May 19vs LAD4 − 5L
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 27at CLE2 − 3L
May 26at CLE6 − 3W
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W
May 23at ATL2 − 0W
May 22at ATL4 − 5L
May 21vs NYM1 − 2L
May 20vs NYM8 − 4W
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L