bayesRatings

Orioles at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BAL 13 – TOR 3
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL10000503413131
TOR100020000381
Team box
BAL·TOR
13
hits
8
2
home runs
1
4
walks
0
9
strikeouts
5
127
pitches thrown
175
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adley RutschmanBAL4-4415
Coby MayoBAL1-5212
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR1-3112
Jeremiah JacksonBAL2-3202
Colton CowserBAL2-5001
George SpringerTOR2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (W)BAL6.17304
Trey Yesavage (L)TOR5.25625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +10
BAL +10
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · BAL 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, TOR 55% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
TOR by 0.7
Expected score
TOR 4.9 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.1
OriolesThe matchupBlue Jays
+121Our fair odds−121
4.2Expected runs4.9
−0.08Power rating+0.06
4.6Runs / game4.1
5.2Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.11Home runs / game0.94
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
30−33Season record30−33
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12145%+11945.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12155%−14258.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.7
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.7 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more42%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TOR
Jun 4 at BOS
last game
Jun 4 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
BAL·TOR
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.6
runs / game
4.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
30−33
season record
30−33
19−15
home record
17−13
11−18
away record
13−20
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.11
home runs / game
0.94
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.52
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BAL · TOR · 72 days
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
May 31at BALBAL 9 − 5
May 30at BALBAL 6 − 5
May 29at BALTOR 6 − 5
May 28at BALTOR 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Jul 30, 2025at BALTOR 9 − 8
Jul 29, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at BALBAL 16 − 4

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W
May 30vs TOR6 − 5W
May 29vs TOR5 − 6L
May 28vs TOR1 − 2L
May 27vs TB11 − 2W
May 26vs TB6 − 1W
May 25vs TB9 − 7W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L
May 31at BAL5 − 9L
May 30at BAL5 − 6L
May 29at BAL6 − 5W
May 28at BAL2 − 1W
May 27vs MIA2 − 1W
May 26vs MIA8 − 1W
May 25vs MIA2 − 8L