bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Jun 4 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final TOR 7 – ATL 2
← MLB / Jun 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0030000047160
ATL001000010240
Team box
TOR·ATL
16
hits
4
0
home runs
1
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
6
140
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Myles StrawTOR2-5103
Mauricio DubonATL2-3111
Tyler HeinemanTOR2-5002
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-5200
Nathan LukesTOR2-3101
Ernie ClementTOR3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason FluhartyTOR1.11011
Chad Dallas (W)TOR3.22122
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.10001
Chris Sale (L)ATL5.210326

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · TOR 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Jun 4

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
8.6
Blue JaysThe matchupBraves
+126Our fair odds−126
4.0Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.22
4.0Runs / game5.3
4.2Allowed / game3.4
8.2Hits / game8.9
0.95Home runs / game1.40
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
29−33Season record42−20
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi32.5%72.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12644%+20832.5%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12656%−26372.4%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMason Fluharty RP · last 2 starts: 2.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ATL
Jun 3 at ATL
last game
Jun 3 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
TOR·ATL
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
4.0
runs / game
5.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
29−33
season record
42−20
17−13
home record
19−10
12−20
away record
23−10
L4
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.9
0.95
home runs / game
1.40
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.65
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TOR · ATL · 71 days
Toronto Blue JaysAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jun 3at ATLATL 7 − 3
Jun 2at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 16, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 3
Apr 14, 2025at TORATL 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 3
Sep 7, 2024at ATLTOR 9 − 5
Sep 6, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 1
May 14, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 5
May 13, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 2

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L
May 31at BAL5 − 9L
May 30at BAL5 − 6L
May 29at BAL6 − 5W
May 28at BAL2 − 1W
May 27vs MIA2 − 1W
May 26vs MIA8 − 1W
May 25vs MIA2 − 8L
May 24vs PIT1 − 4L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 3vs TOR7 − 3W
Jun 2vs TOR4 − 3W
May 31at CIN4 − 6L
May 30at CIN5 − 2W
May 29at CIN8 − 3W
May 28at BOS10 − 2W
May 27at BOS0 − 8L
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L