bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final TOR 3 – ATL 4
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR020001000390
ATL20100100460
Team box
TOR·ATL
9
hits
6
1
home runs
1
1
walks
2
9
strikeouts
9
128
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-3112
Matt OlsonATL2-4211
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-2002
Michael Harris IIATL1-4101
Nathan LukesTOR2-4100
Ernie ClementTOR2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR6.05428
Bryce Elder (W)ATL6.26316
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
8.7
Blue JaysThe matchupBraves
+123Our fair odds−123
4.0Expected runs4.6
+0.07Power rating+0.21
4.1Runs / game5.3
4.2Allowed / game3.5
8.2Hits / game8.9
0.93Home runs / game1.40
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
29−31Season record40−20
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12345%−10350.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12355%−12154.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ATL
May 31 at BAL
last game
May 31 at CIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
TOR·ATL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.1
runs / game
5.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.5
29−31
season record
40−20
17−13
home record
17−10
12−18
away record
23−10
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.9
0.93
home runs / game
1.40
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.65
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TOR · ATL · 69 days
Toronto Blue JaysAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Apr 16, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 3
Apr 14, 2025at TORATL 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 3
Sep 7, 2024at ATLTOR 9 − 5
Sep 6, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 1
May 14, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 5
May 13, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 2
May 12, 2023at TORTOR 3 − 0
May 13, 2021at ATLTOR 8 − 4

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 31at BAL5 − 9L
May 30at BAL5 − 6L
May 29at BAL6 − 5W
May 28at BAL2 − 1W
May 27vs MIA2 − 1W
May 26vs MIA8 − 1W
May 25vs MIA2 − 8L
May 24vs PIT1 − 4L
May 23vs PIT5 − 2W
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 31at CIN4 − 6L
May 30at CIN5 − 2W
May 29at CIN8 − 3W
May 28at BOS10 − 2W
May 27at BOS0 − 8L
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W