bayesRatings

Padres at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Jun 4 · 12:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final SD 4 – PHI 6
← MLB / Jun 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000000202442
PHI000120306100
Team box
SD·PHI
4
hits
10
2
home runs
1
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
152
pitches thrown
147
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD1-4112
Jackson MerrillSD1-3112
Adolis GarciaPHI1-4111
Alec BohmPHI2-4001
Bryson StottPHI2-4001
Trea TurnerPHI1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lucas Giolito (L)SD4.06215
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI7.02238

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: PHI 4 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Jun 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.0 – 3.7 SD
Expected total
7.7
PadresThe matchupPhillies
+110Our fair odds−110
3.7Expected runs4.0
+0.05Power rating+0.09
3.9Runs / game3.9
4.0Allowed / game4.3
7.1Hits / game7.5
1.02Home runs / game1.23
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
32−28Season record32−29
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+11048%+17336.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11052%−21868.5%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more37%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDLucas Giolito SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 6 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·PHI
Jun 3 at PHI
last game
Jun 3 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
SD·PHI
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
3.9
runs / game
3.9
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
32−28
season record
32−29
16−16
home record
16−16
16−12
away record
16−13
L4
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
7−3
7.1
hits / game
7.5
1.02
home runs / game
1.23
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.30
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SD · PHI · 71 days
San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jun 3at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 2at PHIPHI 3 − 2
May 27at SDPHI 3 − 0
May 26at SDPHI 4 − 3
May 25at SDPHI 3 − 0
Jul 13, 2025at SDPHI 2 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at PHISD 6 − 4

SD · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jun 3at PHI2 − 3L
Jun 2at PHI2 − 3L
May 31at WSH2 − 4L
May 30at WSH4 − 9L
May 29at WSH7 − 5W
May 27vs PHI0 − 3L
May 26vs PHI3 − 4L
May 25vs PHI0 − 3L
May 24vs ATH2 − 5L
May 23vs ATH2 − 0W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W