bayesRatings

White Sox at Phillies

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CHW 6 – PHI 8
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0210111006100
PHI050100208112
Team box
CHW·PHI
10
hits
11
3
home runs
2
2
walks
4
6
strikeouts
7
146
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randal GrichukCHW2-3222
Adolis GarciaPHI2-4211
Brandon MarshPHI1-4112
Kyle SchwarberPHI4-5200
Alec BohmPHI2-4002
Derek HillCHW1-3111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony KayCHW4.07624
Bryan Hudson (L)CHW0.22210
Jesus LuzardoPHI6.07522
Jonathan Bowlan (W)PHI1.02002
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · CHW 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.3
White SoxThe matchupPhillies
+128Our fair odds−128
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.09Power rating+0.10
4.7Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.35Home runs / game1.23
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
33−29Season record33−29
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · PHI chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi39.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+12844%+15239.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12856%−19165.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
CHWChicago White Sox+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 13 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·PHI
Jun 3 at MIN
last game
Jun 4 vs SD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
CHW·PHI
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.7
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
33−29
season record
33−29
20−11
home record
17−16
13−18
away record
16−13
W1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.35
home runs / game
1.23
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.48
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHW · PHI · 72 days
Chicago White SoxPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHI 6−3
Jul 30, 2025at CHWCHW 9 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at CHWPHI 6 − 3
Jul 28, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Apr 20, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 5
Apr 19, 2024at PHIPHI 7 − 0
Apr 19, 2023at CHWPHI 5 − 2
Apr 18, 2023at CHWCHW 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2023at CHWPHI 7 − 4

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L
May 25vs MIN3 − 1W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L