bayesRatings

White Sox at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 12:35 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CHW 5 – PHI 9
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0210200005100
PHI121032009110
Team box
CHW·PHI
10
hits
11
0
home runs
2
5
walks
6
11
strikeouts
9
171
pitches thrown
188
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon MarshPHI2-4212
Rafael MarchanPHI1-4112
Randal GrichukCHW2-3002
Alec BohmPHI2-3102
Tristan PetersCHW2-3101
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler GilbertCHW0.22101
Tyler Davis (L)CHW1.03311
Aaron NolaPHI4.16544
Jose Alvarado (W)PHI1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +4
CHW +4
123456789
largest lead: PHI 4 · CHW 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.3
White SoxThe matchupPhillies
+127Our fair odds−127
3.9Expected runs4.4
−0.09Power rating+0.09
4.8Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.39Home runs / game1.25
3.6Walks drawn / game3.0
34−30Season record34−30
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+12744%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12756%−17563.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
CHWChicago White Sox+0.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWTyler Gilbert RP · last 3 starts: 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 5 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·PHI
Jun 6 at PHI
last game
Jun 6 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
CHW·PHI
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.8
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
34−30
season record
34−30
20−11
home record
18−17
14−19
away record
16−13
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.39
home runs / game
1.25
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.47
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CHW · PHI · 74 days
Chicago White SoxPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Jun 6at PHICHW 6 − 3
Jun 5at PHIPHI 8 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at CHWCHW 9 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at CHWPHI 6 − 3
Jul 28, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Apr 20, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 5
Apr 19, 2024at PHIPHI 7 − 0
Apr 19, 2023at CHWPHI 5 − 2
Apr 18, 2023at CHWCHW 3 − 0

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 6at PHI6 − 3W
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 6vs CHW3 − 6L
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W