bayesRatings

White Sox at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, Jun 6 · 3:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CHW 6 – PHI 3
← MLB / Jun 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW4020000006100
PHI000102000350
Team box
CHW·PHI
10
hits
5
2
home runs
2
3
walks
5
10
strikeouts
15
156
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jacob GonzalezCHW1-4112
Brandon MarshPHI2-4111
Tristan PetersCHW3-4001
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4211
Alec BohmPHI1-4111
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon EisertCHW1.11002
Sean Burke (W)CHW4.13357
Grant Taylor (S)CHW1.00003
Andrew Painter (L)PHI4.28624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
CHW +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · CHW 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jun 6

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.3
White SoxThe matchupPhillies
+130Our fair odds−130
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.10Power rating+0.10
4.7Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.38Home runs / game1.24
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
33−30Season record34−29
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · PHI chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+13044%+11446.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−13056%−13757.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
CHWChicago White Sox+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWBrandon Eisert RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2 Kstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·PHI
Jun 5 at PHI
last game
Jun 5 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
CHW·PHI
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.7
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
33−30
season record
34−29
20−11
home record
18−16
13−19
away record
16−13
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.38
home runs / game
1.24
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.48
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CHW · PHI · 73 days
Chicago White SoxPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jun 5at PHIPHI 8 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at CHWCHW 9 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at CHWPHI 6 − 3
Jul 28, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Apr 20, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 5
Apr 19, 2024at PHIPHI 7 − 0
Apr 19, 2023at CHWPHI 5 − 2
Apr 18, 2023at CHWCHW 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2023at CHWPHI 7 − 4

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 5at PHI6 − 8L
Jun 3at MIN8 − 0W
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W