bayesRatings

Orioles at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final BAL 4 – TOR 6
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000040000481
TOR000005016100
Team box
BAL·TOR
8
hits
10
2
home runs
2
2
walks
1
10
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Taylor WardBAL1-4112
Colton CowserBAL2-4111
Yohendrick PinangoTOR2-4111
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR1-3112
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-4101
Andres GimenezTOR2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (L)BAL5.27113
Kevin GausmanTOR5.05405
Adam Macko (W)TOR1.01002
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.11002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · BAL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
TOR by 0.5
Expected score
TOR 4.8 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.2
OriolesThe matchupBlue Jays
+119Our fair odds−119
4.3Expected runs4.8
−0.07Power rating+0.05
4.7Runs / game4.1
5.1Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.15Home runs / game0.94
3.9Walks drawn / game2.8
31−34Season record31−34
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11946%+11446.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11954%−13757.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.5
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 21 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TOR
Jun 6 at TOR
last game
Jun 6 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
BAL·TOR
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.7
runs / game
4.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
31−34
season record
31−34
19−15
home record
18−14
12−19
away record
13−20
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.15
home runs / game
0.94
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.52
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BAL · TOR · 74 days
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Jun 6at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 5at TORBAL 13 − 3
May 31at BALBAL 9 − 5
May 30at BALBAL 6 − 5
May 29at BALTOR 6 − 5
May 28at BALTOR 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Jul 30, 2025at BALTOR 9 − 8

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 6at TOR4 − 6L
Jun 5at TOR13 − 3W
Jun 4at BOS8 − 2W
Jun 3at BOS1 − 8L
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W
May 30vs TOR6 − 5W
May 29vs TOR5 − 6L
May 28vs TOR1 − 2L
May 27vs TB11 − 2W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L
May 31at BAL5 − 9L
May 30at BAL5 − 6L
May 29at BAL6 − 5W
May 28at BAL2 − 1W
May 27vs MIA2 − 1W