bayesRatings

Red Sox at Rays

MLB · Monday, Jun 8 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BOS 1 – TB 3
← MLB / Jun 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS001000000140
TB10001001370
Team box
BOS·TB
4
hits
7
1
home runs
1
1
walks
7
10
strikeouts
10
157
pitches thrown
118
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB1-3112
Marcelo MayerBOS1-2111
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4000
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4000
Mickey GasperBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connelly Early (L)BOS4.25246
Ian SeymourTB4.01115
Casey Legumina (W)TB1.10001
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 2 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, TB 52% · Updated Jun 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 4.2 BOS
Expected total
8.3
Red SoxThe matchupRays
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating+0.04
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.1Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game8.6
0.76Home runs / game0.84
3.0Walks drawn / game3.7
27−36Season record37−25
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TB chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10748%−11252.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10752%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red SoxPKour margin————
TBTampa Bay RaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more25%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.11 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TB
Jun 7 at NYY
last game
Jun 7 at MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
BOS·TB
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.5
27−36
season record
37−25
10−21
home record
21−9
17−15
away record
16−16
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.6
0.76
home runs / game
0.84
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.51
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

BOS · TB · 75 days
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 7at NYY1 − 6L
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L
May 31at CLE9 − 4W
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L