bayesRatings

Rays at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final TB 6 – MIA 0
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB3000111006120
MIA000000000021
Team box
TB·MIA
12
hits
2
1
home runs
0
5
walks
1
6
strikeouts
14
122
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB2-5002
Cedric MullinsTB1-4111
Yandy DiazTB3-5100
Richie PalaciosTB1-4102
Junior CamineroTB3-3300
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB7.01009
Ryan Gusto (L)MIA2.03311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · TB 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 52%, MIA 48% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.0
RaysThe matchupMarlins
−107Our fair odds+107
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.08
4.6Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.1
0.86Home runs / game0.86
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
36−23Season record29−34
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIA chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10752%−13757.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10748%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIA wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 9.77 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIA
Jun 3 vs DET
last game
Jun 3 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
TB·MIA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.6
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
36−23
season record
29−34
21−9
home record
18−15
15−14
away record
11−19
L3
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.1
0.86
home runs / game
0.86
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.68
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

TB · MIA · 72 days
Tampa Bay RaysMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
May 17at TBTB 6 − 3
May 16at TBMIA 10 − 5
May 15at TBTB 7 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at TBMIA 11 − 10
Jun 6, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 18, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 1
May 17, 2025at MIATB 4 − 0
May 16, 2025at MIAMIA 9 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at TBMIA 6 − 2

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L
May 27at TOR1 − 2L
May 26at TOR1 − 8L
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W