bayesRatings

Marlins at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIA 7 – WSH 3
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA1000030037101
WSH021000000370
Team box
MIA·WSH
10
hits
7
3
home runs
1
4
walks
1
10
strikeouts
7
124
pitches thrown
165
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-2112
Kyle StowersMIA1-4112
Jacob YoungWSH1-4112
Liam HicksMIA1-4211
Otto LopezMIA3-4100
Curtis MeadWSH2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA7.07305
Cade CavalliWSH5.05236
Richard Lovelady (L)WSH0.22200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · MIA 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, WSH 52% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 5.5 – 5.4 WSH
Expected total
10.8
MarlinsThe matchupNationals
+110Our fair odds−110
5.5Expected runs5.4
−0.12Power rating−0.10
4.2Runs / game5.4
4.7Allowed / game5.4
8.0Hits / game8.5
0.77Home runs / game1.28
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
26−34Season record31−29
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11048%+11945.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−11052%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 7.13 ERA, 13 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
May 31 at NYM
last game
May 31 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
MIA·WSH
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.2
runs / game
5.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.4
26−34
season record
31−29
18−15
home record
12−17
8−19
away record
19−12
L5
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.5
0.77
home runs / game
1.28
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.68
errors / game
0.87

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 68 days
Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at MIAWSH 7 − 5
Sep 8, 2025at MIAWSH 15 − 7
Sep 3, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 5
Sep 2, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Sep 1, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L
May 27at TOR1 − 2L
May 26at TOR1 − 8L
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W
May 29vs SD5 − 7L
May 27at CLE2 − 3L
May 26at CLE6 − 3W
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W
May 23at ATL2 − 0W
May 22at ATL4 − 5L
May 21vs NYM1 − 2L