bayesRatings

Marlins at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIA 7 – WSH 3
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000040003781
WSH000001200370
Team box
MIA·WSH
8
hits
7
4
home runs
0
5
walks
1
6
strikeouts
11
144
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-5223
Joe MackMIA1-3113
Otto LopezMIA2-5111
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-4001
Daylen LileWSH2-3100
Kyle StowersMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lake BacharMIA2.20013
John King (W)MIA1.20000
Richard LoveladyWSH2.00032
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH6.06624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · MIA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, WSH 52% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 5.5 – 5.4 WSH
Expected total
10.8
MarlinsThe matchupNationals
+107Our fair odds−107
5.5Expected runs5.4
−0.10Power rating−0.11
4.2Runs / game5.4
4.6Allowed / game5.4
8.1Hits / game8.4
0.80Home runs / game1.28
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
27−34Season record31−30
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10748%−10350.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10752%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIALake Bachar RP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted
WSHRichard Lovelady RP · last 3 starts: 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
Jun 1 at WSH
last game
Jun 1 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
MIA·WSH
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.2
runs / game
5.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.4
27−34
season record
31−30
18−15
home record
12−18
9−19
away record
19−12
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.4
0.80
home runs / game
1.28
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.69
errors / game
0.85

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 69 days
Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Jun 1at WSHMIA 7 − 3
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at MIAWSH 7 − 5
Sep 8, 2025at MIAWSH 15 − 7
Sep 3, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 5
Sep 2, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 2

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L
May 27at TOR1 − 2L
May 26at TOR1 − 8L
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W
May 29vs SD5 − 7L
May 27at CLE2 − 3L
May 26at CLE6 − 3W
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W
May 23at ATL2 − 0W
May 22at ATL4 − 5L