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Marlins at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIA 4 – WSH 1
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0100000214101
WSH001000000131
Team box
MIA·WSH
10
hits
3
1
home runs
0
8
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
129
pitches thrown
206
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joe MackMIA2-3002
Esteury RuizMIA1-2111
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-5000
Kyle StowersMIA1-5001
Otto LopezMIA1-5100
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Meyer (W)MIA7.02127
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.01001
Andrew AlvarezWSH4.24115
Clayton Beeter (L)WSH1.13213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · MIA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 5.6 – 5.3 WSH
Expected total
10.9
MarlinsThe matchupNationals
+104Our fair odds−104
5.6Expected runs5.3
−0.09Power rating−0.12
4.3Runs / game5.3
4.6Allowed / game5.4
8.1Hits / game8.4
0.85Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game3.5
28−34Season record31−31
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10449%−11653.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10451%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.3our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more41%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.549%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 20 Kstarted
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
Jun 2 at WSH
last game
Jun 2 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
MIA·WSH
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.3
runs / game
5.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.4
28−34
season record
31−31
18−15
home record
12−19
10−19
away record
19−12
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.4
0.85
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.69
errors / game
0.84

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 70 days
Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Jun 2at WSHMIA 7 − 3
Jun 1at WSHMIA 7 − 3
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at MIAWSH 7 − 5
Sep 8, 2025at MIAWSH 15 − 7
Sep 3, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 5

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L
May 27at TOR1 − 2L
May 26at TOR1 − 8L
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W
May 29vs SD5 − 7L
May 27at CLE2 − 3L
May 26at CLE6 − 3W
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W
May 23at ATL2 − 0W