bayesRatings

Rays at Marlins

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 12:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final TB 1 – MIA 4
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB001000000161
MIA00000220450
Team box
TB·MIA
6
hits
5
0
home runs
0
1
walks
6
10
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Otto LopezMIA2-4101
Kyle StowersMIA1-2001
Yandy DiazTB1-4001
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4000
Jakob MarseeMIA1-1100
Joe MackMIA0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin JaxTB5.03024
Garrett Cleavinger (L)TB1.01212
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA7.05117
Anthony Bender (S)MIA1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 3 · TB 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 52%, MIA 48% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.9
RaysThe matchupMarlins
−108Our fair odds+108
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.08
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.0
0.85Home runs / game0.85
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
37−24Season record30−35
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIA chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10852%−11252.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10848%−10751.8%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIA wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 14 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 8.20 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIA
Jun 6 at MIA
last game
Jun 6 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
TB·MIA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
37−24
season record
30−35
21−9
home record
19−16
16−15
away record
11−19
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.0
0.85
home runs / game
0.85
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.67
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

TB · MIA · 74 days
Tampa Bay RaysMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jun 6at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jun 5at MIATB 6 − 0
May 17at TBTB 6 − 3
May 16at TBMIA 10 − 5
May 15at TBTB 7 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at TBMIA 11 − 10
Jun 6, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 18, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 1
May 17, 2025at MIATB 4 − 0

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L
Jun 3at WSH4 − 1W
Jun 2at WSH7 − 3W
Jun 1at WSH7 − 3W
May 31at NYM1 − 10L
May 30at NYM1 − 6L
May 29at NYM7 − 9L
May 27at TOR1 − 2L
May 26at TOR1 − 8L