bayesRatings

Red Sox at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BOS 3 – TB 4
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS001000020361
TB000301004120
Team box
BOS·TB
6
hits
12
0
home runs
0
0
walks
1
2
strikeouts
5
126
pitches thrown
92
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcelo MayerBOS1-3002
Ryan ViladeTB3-4100
Nick FortesTB2-3001
Ben WilliamsonTB2-4201
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS2-3200
Jarren DuranBOS1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (L)BOS6.09413
Nick Martinez (W)TB7.06302
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, TB 52% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.1 – 4.1 BOS
Expected total
8.2
Red SoxThe matchupRays
+109Our fair odds−109
4.1Expected runs4.1
+0.02Power rating+0.05
3.9Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.4
8.2Hits / game8.6
0.77Home runs / game0.84
2.9Walks drawn / game3.7
27−37Season record38−25
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TB chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10948%−12154.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10952%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red SoxPKour margin————
TBTampa Bay RaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more25%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 21 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TB
Jun 8 at TB
last game
Jun 8 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
BOS·TB
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.9
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
27−37
season record
38−25
10−21
home record
22−9
17−16
away record
16−16
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.6
0.77
home runs / game
0.84
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.50
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

BOS · TB · 76 days
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Jun 8at TBTB 3 − 1
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 8at TB1 − 3L
Jun 7at NYY1 − 6L
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L
May 31at CLE9 − 4W
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W