bayesRatings

Phillies at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final PHI 7 – TOR 4
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI1032001007101
TOR000001300480
Team box
PHI·TOR
10
hits
8
3
home runs
0
5
walks
7
9
strikeouts
11
153
pitches thrown
194
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BohmPHI2-5113
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4212
Bryce HarperPHI2-4311
Bryson StottPHI2-4001
Myles StrawTOR3-4100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI5.24148
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.02001
Max Scherzer (L)TOR3.15534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · PHI 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, TOR 50% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupBlue Jays
+101Our fair odds−101
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating+0.05
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.24Home runs / game0.96
3.0Walks drawn / game2.8
36−31Season record33−35
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · TOR chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10150%−13757.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10150%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byTOR wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more37%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 14.34 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·TOR
Jun 9 at TOR
last game
Jun 9 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
PHI·TOR
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
36−31
season record
33−35
19−17
home record
20−15
17−14
away record
13−20
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.24
home runs / game
0.96
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.45
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

PHI · TOR · 77 days
Philadelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Jun 9at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jun 8at TORPHI 5 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 4
Jun 14, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at TORPHI 8 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at TORPHI 4 − 2
Sep 3, 2024at TORPHI 10 − 9

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 9at TOR2 − 3L
Jun 8at TOR5 − 2W
Jun 7vs CHW9 − 5W
Jun 6vs CHW3 − 6L
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L
May 30at LAD4 − 3W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 9vs PHI3 − 2W
Jun 8vs PHI2 − 5L
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L
May 31at BAL5 − 9L
May 30at BAL5 − 6L