bayesRatings

Rangers at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TEX 3 – BOS 6
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0011000103100
BOS002000226111
Team box
TEX·BOS
10
hits
11
1
home runs
1
2
walks
1
12
strikeouts
8
146
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS1-4112
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4002
Wyatt LangfordTEX3-5001
Jake BurgerTEX1-3111
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4100
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGromTEX6.06205
Cole Winn (L)TEX0.22202
Ranger SuarezBOS5.06227
Garrett Whitlock (W)BOS1.00001
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 3 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.0 – 3.7 TEX
Expected total
7.7
RangersThe matchupRed Sox
+108Our fair odds−108
3.7Expected runs4.0
+0.01Power rating+0.02
4.0Runs / game4.0
3.9Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game8.2
0.99Home runs / game0.82
3.4Walks drawn / game2.9
34−35Season record28−39
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10848%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10852%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 20 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·BOS
Jun 12 at BOS
last game
Jun 12 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
TEX·BOS
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
34−35
season record
28−39
17−14
home record
11−21
17−21
away record
17−18
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.2
0.99
home runs / game
0.82
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.48
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TEX · BOS · 80 days
Texas RangersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Jun 12at BOSBOS 10 − 1
May 8, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 0
May 7, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
May 6, 2025at BOSTEX 6 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at TEXBOS 5 − 2
Aug 14, 2024at BOSTEX 9 − 7
Aug 13, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 4

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L
Jun 11at KC4 − 2W
Jun 10at KC6 − 4W
Jun 9at KC3 − 5L
Jun 7vs CLE10 − 0W
Jun 6vs CLE0 − 6L
Jun 5vs CLE3 − 2W
Jun 3at STL3 − 5L
Jun 2at STL7 − 4W
Jun 1at STL2 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 12vs TEX10 − 1W
Jun 10at TB5 − 7L
Jun 9at TB3 − 4L
Jun 8at TB1 − 3L
Jun 7at NYY1 − 6L
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L
May 31at CLE9 − 4W