bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TOR 6 – BOS 1
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR001021002670
BOS000000010180
Team box
TOR·BOS
7
hits
8
3
home runs
1
4
walks
6
7
strikeouts
12
169
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR2-3113
Davis SchneiderTOR2-4112
Jarren DuranBOS2-5111
Andres GimenezTOR2-4211
Connor WongBOS2-2000
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (W)TOR5.04047
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.11013
Payton Tolle (L)BOS5.04326

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · TOR 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, BOS 51% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
8.2
Blue JaysThe matchupRed Sox
+106Our fair odds−106
4.0Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.4Hits / game8.3
0.96Home runs / game0.84
2.9Walks drawn / game2.8
34−38Season record29−40
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10649%−12154.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10651%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.2our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 28 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BOS
Jun 14 vs NYY
last game
Jun 14 vs TEX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
TOR·BOS
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
34−38
season record
29−40
21−18
home record
12−22
13−20
away record
17−18
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.3
0.96
home runs / game
0.84
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.61
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TOR · BOS · 83 days
Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Apr 29at TORTOR 8 − 1
Apr 28at TORTOR 3 − 0
Apr 27at TORBOS 5 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at TORBOS 4 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BOSTOR 5 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at BOSBOS 15 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at BOSTOR 9 − 0
May 1, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Jun 13vs NYY1 − 3L
Jun 12vs NYY8 − 5W
Jun 10vs PHI4 − 7L
Jun 9vs PHI3 − 2W
Jun 8vs PHI2 − 5L
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 14vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 13vs TEX6 − 3W
Jun 12vs TEX10 − 1W
Jun 10at TB5 − 7L
Jun 9at TB3 − 4L
Jun 8at TB1 − 3L
Jun 7at NYY1 − 6L
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W