bayesRatings

Yankees at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final NYY 5 – TOR 8
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000032000570
TOR320020018100
Team box
NYY·TOR
7
hits
10
1
home runs
2
7
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
155
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR3-3102
Cody BellingerNYY1-5112
George SpringerTOR1-2312
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4112
Trent GrishamNYY1-4002
Ernie ClementTOR2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY4.15612
Trey Yesavage (W)TOR5.04563
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 5 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, TOR 45% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
NYY by 1.1
Expected score
NYY 5.1 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
9.1
YankeesThe matchupBlue Jays
−121Our fair odds+121
5.1Expected runs4.0
+0.30Power rating+0.05
5.1Runs / game4.1
3.6Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game8.4
1.45Home runs / game0.94
4.3Walks drawn / game2.8
41−26Season record33−36
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TOR chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12155%+10149.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+12145%−12154.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.1
NYYNew York Yankees−1.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.1 expected
New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTOR wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more46%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TOR
Jun 10 at CLE
last game
Jun 10 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
NYY·TOR
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.1
runs / game
4.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
41−26
season record
33−36
19−12
home record
20−16
22−14
away record
13−20
W4
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.4
1.45
home runs / game
0.94
4.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.46
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

NYY · TOR · 79 days
New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
May 21at NYYTOR 2 − 0
May 20at NYYTOR 2 − 1
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post
Oct 5, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 7post
Oct 4, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 1post
Sep 7, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 1

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W
May 30at ATH4 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 10vs PHI4 − 7L
Jun 9vs PHI3 − 2W
Jun 8vs PHI2 − 5L
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L
May 31at BAL5 − 9L