bayesRatings

Rangers at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, Jun 14 · 6:20 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TEX 6 – BOS 4
← MLB / Jun 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX1302000006130
BOS020001010490
Team box
TEX·BOS
13
hits
9
2
home runs
2
3
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
134
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS3-4222
Kyle HigashiokaTEX2-4113
Brandon NimmoTEX2-5002
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-4211
Justin FoscueTEX3-3100
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (W)TEX7.06316
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.10002
Connelly Early (L)BOS4.211623

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
TEX +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · TEX 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Jun 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.0 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
7.8
RangersThe matchupRed Sox
+109Our fair odds−109
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.01Power rating+0.03
4.0Runs / game4.0
3.9Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game8.3
0.99Home runs / game0.82
3.4Walks drawn / game2.9
34−36Season record29−39
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10948%−10350.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10952%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 6.27 ERA, 16 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·BOS
Jun 13 at BOS
last game
Jun 13 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
TEX·BOS
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
34−36
season record
29−39
17−14
home record
12−21
17−22
away record
17−18
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.3
0.99
home runs / game
0.82
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.47
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TEX · BOS · 81 days
Texas RangersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Jun 13at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 12at BOSBOS 10 − 1
May 8, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 0
May 7, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
May 6, 2025at BOSTEX 6 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at TEXBOS 5 − 2
Aug 14, 2024at BOSTEX 9 − 7

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L
Jun 11at KC4 − 2W
Jun 10at KC6 − 4W
Jun 9at KC3 − 5L
Jun 7vs CLE10 − 0W
Jun 6vs CLE0 − 6L
Jun 5vs CLE3 − 2W
Jun 3at STL3 − 5L
Jun 2at STL7 − 4W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 13vs TEX6 − 3W
Jun 12vs TEX10 − 1W
Jun 10at TB5 − 7L
Jun 9at TB3 − 4L
Jun 8at TB1 − 3L
Jun 7at NYY1 − 6L
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L