bayesRatings

Yankees at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final NYY 3 – TOR 1
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000100002350
TOR001000000161
Team box
NYY·TOR
5
hits
6
2
home runs
1
2
walks
7
9
strikeouts
11
138
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4112
Jasson DominguezNYY1-4111
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-3111
Cody BellingerNYY1-4100
J.C. EscarraNYY1-3000
Ben RiceNYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam SchlittlerNYY7.06147
Fernando Cruz (W)NYY1.00031
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00003
Kevin GausmanTOR7.01127
Louis Varland (L)TOR1.02201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, TOR 46% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.1 – 4.1 TOR
Expected total
9.2
YankeesThe matchupBlue Jays
−117Our fair odds+117
5.1Expected runs4.1
+0.29Power rating+0.06
5.1Runs / game4.1
3.6Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game8.4
1.44Home runs / game0.96
4.3Walks drawn / game2.8
41−27Season record34−36
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TOR chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%−12154.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+11746%+10149.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTOR wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TOR
Jun 12 at TOR
last game
Jun 12 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
NYY·TOR
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.1
runs / game
4.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
41−27
season record
34−36
19−12
home record
21−16
22−15
away record
13−20
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.4
1.44
home runs / game
0.96
4.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.46
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

NYY · TOR · 80 days
New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Jun 12at TORTOR 8 − 5
May 21at NYYTOR 2 − 0
May 20at NYYTOR 2 − 1
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post
Oct 5, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 7post
Oct 4, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 1post
Sep 7, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 12vs NYY8 − 5W
Jun 10vs PHI4 − 7L
Jun 9vs PHI3 − 2W
Jun 8vs PHI2 − 5L
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 6vs BAL6 − 4W
Jun 5vs BAL3 − 13L
Jun 4at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 3at ATL3 − 7L
Jun 2at ATL3 − 4L