bayesRatings

Astros at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 3:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final HOU 9 – TOR 7
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
HOU100300002039151
TOR000200220017131
Team box
HOU·TOR
15
hits
13
4
home runs
2
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
195
pitches thrown
192
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey LoperfidoHOU1-1114
Daulton VarshoTOR3-6212
Kazuma OkamotoTOR3-4103
Cam SmithHOU2-5112
Luis UriasTOR2-5112
Yainer DiazHOU2-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter LambertHOU4.26236
Logan VanWey (W)HOU2.01000
Shane BieberTOR3.29402
Braydon Fisher (L)TOR2.01212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
HOU +4
1234567891011
largest lead: TOR 2 · HOU 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 4.3 HOU
Expected total
8.9
AstrosThe matchupBlue Jays
+118Our fair odds−118
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.29Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game2.8
37−43Season record39−39
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11846%+10548.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11854%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TOR
Jun 22 at TOR
last game
Jun 22 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
HOU·TOR
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
37−43
season record
39−39
20−21
home record
22−18
17−22
away record
17−21
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.29
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.38
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

HOU · TOR · 90 days
Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Jun 22at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at TORHOU 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 0
Jul 4, 2024at TORHOU 5 − 3
Jul 3, 2024at TORHOU 9 − 2
Jul 2, 2024at TORTOR 7 − 6

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 22at TOR2 − 4L
Jun 21vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 20vs CLE1 − 8L
Jun 19vs CLE9 − 3W
Jun 17vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 16vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 15vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 14at KC0 − 4L
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W
Jun 12at KC10 − 8W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W
Jun 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jun 19at CHC2 − 16L
Jun 18at BOS4 − 3W
Jun 17at BOS3 − 0W
Jun 16at BOS6 − 1W
Jun 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Jun 13vs NYY1 − 3L
Jun 12vs NYY8 − 5W
Jun 10vs PHI4 − 7L