bayesRatings

Guardians at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Jun 20 · 6:15 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final CLE 8 – HOU 1
← MLB / Jun 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE1020302008100
HOU010000000150
Team box
CLE·HOU
10
hits
5
3
home runs
0
0
walks
1
11
strikeouts
11
113
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Travis BazzanaCLE4-4325
Kyle ManzardoCLE2-4113
Patrick BaileyCLE3-4200
Jose AltuveHOU2-4000
Yainer DiazHOU1-3001
Petey HalpinCLE1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE8.04119
Spencer Arrighetti (L)HOU6.06608

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +7
CLE +7
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · CLE 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, HOU 50% · Updated Jun 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.2 – 4.2 CLE
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupAstros
+101Our fair odds−101
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.03
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.1Allowed / game5.0
7.5Hits / game8.2
0.93Home runs / game1.32
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
40−36Season record36−41
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · HOU chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10150%+12943.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10150%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more36%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 15 Kstarted
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·HOU
Jun 19 at HOU
last game
Jun 19 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
CLE·HOU
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.0
40−36
season record
36−41
19−17
home record
19−20
21−19
away record
17−21
L1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
8.2
0.93
home runs / game
1.32
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.47
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

CLE · HOU · 87 days
Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Jun 19at HOUHOU 9 − 3
Apr 22at CLEHOU 2 − 0
Apr 21at CLECLE 8 − 5
Apr 20at CLEHOU 9 − 2
Jul 9, 2025at HOUCLE 4 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at HOUCLE 10 − 6
Jul 7, 2025at HOUCLE 7 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CLEHOU 5 − 3
Jun 6, 2025at CLEHOU 4 − 2

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 19at HOU3 − 9L
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L
Jun 8vs NYY5 − 7L
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 19vs CLE9 − 3W
Jun 17vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 16vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 15vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 14at KC0 − 4L
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W
Jun 12at KC10 − 8W
Jun 10at LAA2 − 3L
Jun 9at LAA1 − 10L
Jun 8at LAA5 − 4W