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Guardians at Brewers

MLB · Thursday, Jun 18 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CLE 4 – MIL 2
← MLB / Jun 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE001001200470
MIL010100000250
Team box
CLE·MIL
7
hits
5
3
home runs
0
8
walks
9
9
strikeouts
13
168
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
David FryCLE1-2111
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-3111
Travis BazzanaCLE1-3111
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4000
Gary SanchezMIL1-3101
Cooper PrattMIL1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (W)CLE6.04239
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.10022
Shane DrohanMIL5.03133
Grant Anderson (L)MIL0.21221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · CLE 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 40%, MIL 60% · Updated Jun 18

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 3.3 CLE
Expected total
8.1
GuardiansThe matchupBrewers
+151Our fair odds−151
3.3Expected runs4.8
+0.03Power rating+0.38
4.0Runs / game5.4
4.1Allowed / game3.7
7.5Hits / game8.7
0.91Home runs / game0.94
3.9Walks drawn / game4.2
39−35Season record45−26
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIL chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+15140%+12444.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−15160%−14859.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
CLECleveland Guardians+1.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIL
Jun 17 at MIL
last game
Jun 17 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
CLE·MIL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.0
runs / game
5.4
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.7
39−35
season record
45−26
19−17
home record
25−14
20−18
away record
20−12
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
7−3
7.5
hits / game
8.7
0.91
home runs / game
0.94
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.47
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

CLE · MIL · 85 days
Cleveland GuardiansMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Jun 17at MILMIL 9 − 4
Jun 16at MILMIL 2 − 1
May 14, 2025at CLEMIL 9 − 5
May 13, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
May 12, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at MILMIL 2 − 0
Aug 17, 2024at MILMIL 2 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 25, 2023at CLEMIL 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 2

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L
Jun 8vs NYY5 − 7L
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W
Jun 7at COL12 − 4W
Jun 6at COL7 − 1W