bayesRatings

Phillies at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PHI 0 – MIL 6
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000000010
MIL11003100690
Team box
PHI·MIL
1
hits
9
0
home runs
1
0
walks
5
15
strikeouts
8
140
pitches thrown
95
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-3113
William ContrerasMIL1-3101
Joey OrtizMIL2-4100
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4100
Jackson ChourioMIL1-5001
Brice TurangMIL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Banks (L)PHI1.01122
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL9.010015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 6 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupBrewers
+133Our fair odds−133
3.8Expected runs4.6
+0.11Power rating+0.33
4.1Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game8.6
1.26Home runs / game0.86
3.1Walks drawn / game4.3
37−31Season record41−25
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi33.5%71.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+13343%+19833.5%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13357%−25171.5%———
SpreadMIL by 0.8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.8 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more42%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more32%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHITanner Banks RP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 9.39 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 0.43 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIL
Jun 10 at TOR
last game
Jun 10 at ATH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
PHI·MIL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.1
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
37−31
season record
41−25
19−17
home record
21−13
18−14
away record
20−12
W1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.6
1.26
home runs / game
0.86
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.46
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

PHI · MIL · 79 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Sep 4, 2025at MILPHI 2 − 0
Sep 3, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MILPHI 10 − 8
Jun 1, 2025at PHIMIL 5 − 2
May 31, 2025at PHIMIL 17 − 7
May 30, 2025at PHIMIL 6 − 2
Sep 18, 2024at MILMIL 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2024at MILPHI 5 − 1
Sep 16, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 2
Jun 5, 2024at PHIPHI 2 − 0

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 10at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 9at TOR2 − 3L
Jun 8at TOR5 − 2W
Jun 7vs CHW9 − 5W
Jun 6vs CHW3 − 6L
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 2vs SD3 − 2W
May 31at LAD1 − 9L

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W
Jun 7at COL12 − 4W
Jun 6at COL7 − 1W
Jun 5at COL9 − 7W
Jun 4vs SF9 − 12L
Jun 3vs SF0 − 1L
Jun 2vs SF8 − 3W
Jun 1vs SF16 − 2W