bayesRatings

Brewers at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final MIL 9 – COL 7
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIL0100000044980
COL11100000227111
Team box
MIL·COL
8
hits
11
0
home runs
1
6
walks
6
11
strikeouts
8
172
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL3-5303
Sterlin ThompsonCOL3-5102
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-3112
Sal FrelickMIL2-3102
Andrew VaughnMIL1-1002
Tyler FreemanCOL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon SproatMIL5.07322
Trevor Megill (W)MIL1.03211
Ryan FeltnerCOL6.01124
Juan Mejia (L)COL0.13321

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
MIL +4
12345678910
largest lead: COL 2 · MIL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 69%, COL 31% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
MIL by 3.0
Expected score
MIL 7.0 – 4.0 COL
Expected total
11.1
BrewersThe matchupRockies
−226Our fair odds+226
7.0Expected runs4.0
+0.32Power rating−0.56
5.0Runs / game4.3
3.5Allowed / game5.6
8.2Hits / game8.3
0.73Home runs / game0.94
4.3Walks drawn / game3.0
37−23Season record24−39
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · COL chance
Our model fair69.3%30.7%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−22669%−16161.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+22631%+13442.7%———
SpreadMIL by 3.0
MILMilwaukee Brewers−3our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 3.0 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 20 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 19 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 18 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCOL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more60%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more51%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 16 Kstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·COL
Jun 4 vs SF
last game
Jun 3 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
MIL·COL
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.56
5.0
runs / game
4.3
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.6
37−23
season record
24−39
21−13
home record
12−16
16−10
away record
12−23
L2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.3
0.73
home runs / game
0.94
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.43
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

MIL · COL · 72 days
Milwaukee BrewersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Jun 29, 2025at MILCOL 4 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at MILMIL 10 − 6
Apr 10, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at COLMIL 17 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at COLMIL 7 − 1
Sep 8, 2024at MILCOL 4 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 2
Sep 6, 2024at MILCOL 3 − 2
Jul 4, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 3

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jun 4vs SF9 − 12L
Jun 3vs SF0 − 1L
Jun 2vs SF8 − 3W
Jun 1vs SF16 − 2W
May 31at HOU2 − 0W
May 30at HOU2 − 9L
May 29at HOU5 − 4W
May 27vs STL2 − 1W
May 26vs STL6 − 0W
May 25vs STL5 − 1W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L
Jun 2at LAA8 − 2W
Jun 1at LAA9 − 8W
May 31vs SF6 − 19L
May 30vs SF8 − 3W
May 29vs SF8 − 6W
May 27at LAD1 − 4L
May 26at LAD6 − 15L
May 25at LAD3 − 5L
May 24at ARI1 − 9L