bayesRatings

Giants at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final SF 1 – MIL 0
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000010000180
MIL000000000030
Team box
SF·MIL
8
hits
3
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
121
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Victor BericotoSF1-3111
Daniel SusacSF2-4000
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-4000
Christian YelichMIL1-4000
Brice TurangMIL1-4000
Jackson ChourioMIL1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (W)SF7.01014
Keaton Winn (S)SF1.21001
Robert Gasser (L)MIL5.05115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 0 · SF 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 36%, MIL 64% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
MIL by 1.7
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.3 SF
Expected total
8.3
GiantsThe matchupBrewers
+175Our fair odds−175
3.3Expected runs5.0
−0.13Power rating+0.37
3.9Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game3.4
8.7Hits / game8.3
0.90Home runs / game0.71
2.2Walks drawn / game4.3
23−38Season record37−21
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · MIL chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+17536%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17564%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.7
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.7 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more51%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·MIL
Jun 2 at MIL
last game
Jun 2 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
SF·MIL
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
3.9
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.4
23−38
season record
37−21
12−16
home record
21−11
11−22
away record
16−10
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
8.3
0.90
home runs / game
0.71
2.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.69
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

SF · MIL · 70 days
San Francisco GiantsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Jun 2at MILMIL 8 − 3
Jun 1at MILMIL 16 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at MILSF 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at MILSF 7 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 4
Apr 24, 2025at SFSF 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at SFSF 4 − 2
Apr 22, 2025at SFMIL 11 − 3
Apr 21, 2025at SFSF 5 − 2
Sep 12, 2024at SFMIL 3 − 0

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 2at MIL3 − 8L
Jun 1at MIL2 − 16L
May 31at COL19 − 6W
May 30at COL3 − 8L
May 29at COL6 − 8L
May 27vs ARI2 − 3L
May 26vs ARI5 − 7L
May 25vs ARI2 − 6L
May 24vs CHW8 − 5W
May 23vs CHW10 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 2vs SF8 − 3W
Jun 1vs SF16 − 2W
May 31at HOU2 − 0W
May 30at HOU2 − 9L
May 29at HOU5 − 4W
May 27vs STL2 − 1W
May 26vs STL6 − 0W
May 25vs STL5 − 1W
May 24vs LAD1 − 5L
May 23vs LAD3 − 11L