bayesRatings

Brewers at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final MIL 12 – COL 4
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL01000700412170
COL200010001470
Team box
MIL·COL
17
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
1
5
strikeouts
7
122
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gary SanchezMIL2-5213
Garrett MitchellMIL3-5202
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4112
Andrew VaughnMIL3-5301
Luis RengifoMIL1-3102
William ContrerasMIL2-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Drohan (W)MIL6.15314
Kyle FreelandCOL5.07312
Jaden Hill (L)COL0.14520

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +9
MIL +9
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · MIL 9lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 70%, COL 30% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
MIL by 3.1
Expected score
MIL 7.2 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
11.3
BrewersThe matchupRockies
−239Our fair odds+239
7.2Expected runs4.1
+0.34Power rating−0.59
5.1Runs / game4.3
3.5Allowed / game5.7
8.3Hits / game8.3
0.79Home runs / game0.92
4.4Walks drawn / game3.1
39−23Season record24−41
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · COL chance
Our model fair70.5%29.5%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−23970%−18364.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+23930%+15239.6%———
SpreadMIL by 3.1
MILMilwaukee Brewers−3.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 3.1 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 20 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 19 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 18 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCOL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more61%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more51%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · last 2 starts: 6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 7 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 10.05 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·COL
Jun 6 at COL
last game
Jun 6 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
MIL·COL
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
5.1
runs / game
4.3
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.7
39−23
season record
24−41
21−13
home record
12−18
18−10
away record
12−23
W2
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.3
0.79
home runs / game
0.92
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.44
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

MIL · COL · 74 days
Milwaukee BrewersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Jun 6at COLMIL 7 − 1
Jun 5at COLMIL 9 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at MILCOL 4 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at MILMIL 10 − 6
Apr 10, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at COLMIL 17 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at COLMIL 7 − 1
Sep 8, 2024at MILCOL 4 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 2

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 6at COL7 − 1W
Jun 5at COL9 − 7W
Jun 4vs SF9 − 12L
Jun 3vs SF0 − 1L
Jun 2vs SF8 − 3W
Jun 1vs SF16 − 2W
May 31at HOU2 − 0W
May 30at HOU2 − 9L
May 29at HOU5 − 4W
May 27vs STL2 − 1W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L
Jun 2at LAA8 − 2W
Jun 1at LAA9 − 8W
May 31vs SF6 − 19L
May 30vs SF8 − 3W
May 29vs SF8 − 6W
May 27at LAD1 − 4L
May 26at LAD6 − 15L