bayesRatings

Brewers at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 8:05 PM CT · Las Vegas Ballpark · Final MIL 3 – ATH 4
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL1110000003110
ATH00000130490
Team box
MIL·ATH
11
hits
9
2
home runs
3
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
113
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alika WilliamsATH2-3111
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4112
Gary SanchezMIL2-3111
Jackson ChourioMIL2-5111
Carlos CortesATH1-4111
Andrew VaughnMIL2-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon SproatMIL6.04113
Chad Patrick (L)MIL0.03300
Jack PerkinsATH4.05334
Scott Barlow (W)ATH0.21001
Elvis Alvarado (S)ATH1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · MIL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 59%, ATH 41% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
MIL by 1.8
Expected score
MIL 5.9 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
9.9
BrewersThe matchupAthletics
−145Our fair odds+145
5.9Expected runs4.0
+0.34Power rating−0.09
5.4Runs / game4.4
3.8Allowed / game5.0
8.6Hits / game8.4
0.85Home runs / game1.25
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
41−24Season record32−35
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14559%−10751.8%———
ATHAthletics+14541%−11252.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.8
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.8our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.8 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byATH wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more52%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more42%
Athletics wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ATH
Jun 9 at ATH
last game
Jun 9 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
MIL·ATH
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.4
runs / game
4.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
41−24
season record
32−35
21−13
home record
12−18
20−11
away record
20−17
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.4
0.85
home runs / game
1.25
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.43
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIL · ATH · 77 days
Milwaukee BrewersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Jun 9at ATHATH 7 − 5
Jun 8at ATHMIL 15 − 14
Apr 20, 2025at MILMIL 14 − 1
Apr 19, 2025at MILATH 3 − 1
Apr 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at ATHATH 4 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at ATHMIL 9 − 5
Aug 23, 2024at ATHMIL 11 − 3
Jun 11, 2023at MILATH 8 − 6
Jun 10, 2023at MILATH 2 − 1

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W
Jun 7at COL12 − 4W
Jun 6at COL7 − 1W
Jun 5at COL9 − 7W
Jun 4vs SF9 − 12L
Jun 3vs SF0 − 1L
Jun 2vs SF8 − 3W
Jun 1vs SF16 − 2W
May 31at HOU2 − 0W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W