bayesRatings

Phillies at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Jun 14 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PHI 0 – MIL 4
← MLB / Jun 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000000041
MIL100300004101
Team box
PHI·MIL
4
hits
10
0
home runs
2
0
walks
1
6
strikeouts
5
140
pitches thrown
129
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Blake PerkinsMIL2-4113
Jackson ChourioMIL2-4111
William ContrerasMIL2-4000
Gary SanchezMIL1-4100
Luis RengifoMIL1-4100
Joey OrtizMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristopher Sanchez (L)PHI5.28413
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL6.03003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 4 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Jun 14

Expected margin
MIL by 0.9
Expected score
MIL 4.7 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupBrewers
+134Our fair odds−134
3.8Expected runs4.7
+0.10Power rating+0.33
4.1Runs / game5.4
4.3Allowed / game3.8
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.26Home runs / game0.90
3.0Walks drawn / game4.4
38−32Season record42−26
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+13443%−12655.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13457%+10548.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.9 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more44%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 27 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIL
Jun 13 at MIL
last game
Jun 13 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
PHI·MIL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.1
runs / game
5.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
38−32
season record
42−26
19−17
home record
22−14
19−15
away record
20−12
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.26
home runs / game
0.90
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.44
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

PHI · MIL · 81 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jun 13at MILPHI 9 − 8
Jun 12at MILMIL 6 − 0
Sep 4, 2025at MILPHI 2 − 0
Sep 3, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MILPHI 10 − 8
Jun 1, 2025at PHIMIL 5 − 2
May 31, 2025at PHIMIL 17 − 7
May 30, 2025at PHIMIL 6 − 2
Sep 18, 2024at MILMIL 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2024at MILPHI 5 − 1

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W
Jun 12at MIL0 − 6L
Jun 10at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 9at TOR2 − 3L
Jun 8at TOR5 − 2W
Jun 7vs CHW9 − 5W
Jun 6vs CHW3 − 6L
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W
Jun 4vs SD6 − 4W
Jun 3vs SD3 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W
Jun 7at COL12 − 4W
Jun 6at COL7 − 1W
Jun 5at COL9 − 7W
Jun 4vs SF9 − 12L
Jun 3vs SF0 − 1L