bayesRatings

Guardians at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CLE 4 – MIL 9
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000400000430
MIL320200029110
Team box
CLE·MIL
3
hits
11
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
13
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-4114
Christian YelichMIL2-5212
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4112
Sal FrelickMIL2-4102
Cooper PrattMIL2-4101
Brice TurangMIL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (L)CLE5.07724
Brandon SproatMIL3.22426
Chad Patrick (W)MIL3.11017

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 40%, MIL 60% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 4.7 – 3.3 CLE
Expected total
8.0
GuardiansThe matchupBrewers
+148Our fair odds−148
3.3Expected runs4.7
+0.04Power rating+0.36
4.0Runs / game5.3
4.0Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game8.6
0.90Home runs / game0.93
3.9Walks drawn / game4.3
39−34Season record44−26
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+14840%+10548.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14860%−12655.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
CLECleveland Guardians+1.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIL
Jun 16 at MIL
last game
Jun 16 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
CLE·MIL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
4.0
runs / game
5.3
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
39−34
season record
44−26
19−17
home record
24−14
20−17
away record
20−12
L1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.6
0.90
home runs / game
0.93
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.48
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

CLE · MIL · 84 days
Cleveland GuardiansMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Jun 16at MILMIL 2 − 1
May 14, 2025at CLEMIL 9 − 5
May 13, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
May 12, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at MILMIL 2 − 0
Aug 17, 2024at MILMIL 2 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 25, 2023at CLEMIL 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jun 23, 2023at CLEMIL 7 − 1

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L
Jun 8vs NYY5 − 7L
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L
Jun 4at NYY1 − 2L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W
Jun 7at COL12 − 4W
Jun 6at COL7 − 1W
Jun 5at COL9 − 7W