bayesRatings

Guardians at Astros

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final CLE 3 – HOU 9
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE003000000371
HOU101003229120
Team box
CLE·HOU
7
hits
12
1
home runs
3
0
walks
3
15
strikeouts
11
159
pitches thrown
121
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremy PenaHOU3-5223
Jose AltuveHOU2-4114
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-4112
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4101
Travis BazzanaCLE2-4100
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE5.14327
Tatsuya Imai (W)HOU6.063011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 6 · CLE 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, HOU 50% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.2 – 4.2 CLE
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupAstros
−102Our fair odds+102
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.04
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game5.1
7.5Hits / game8.2
0.93Home runs / game1.30
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
40−35Season record35−41
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · HOU chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10250%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10250%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland GuardiansPKour margin————
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more35%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more25%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA, 16 Kstarted
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.94 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·HOU
Jun 18 at MIL
last game
Jun 17 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
CLE·HOU
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.1
40−35
season record
35−41
19−17
home record
18−20
21−18
away record
17−21
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.2
0.93
home runs / game
1.30
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.47
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

CLE · HOU · 86 days
Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Apr 22at CLEHOU 2 − 0
Apr 21at CLECLE 8 − 5
Apr 20at CLEHOU 9 − 2
Jul 9, 2025at HOUCLE 4 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at HOUCLE 10 − 6
Jul 7, 2025at HOUCLE 7 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CLEHOU 5 − 3
Jun 6, 2025at CLEHOU 4 − 2
Sep 28, 2024at CLEHOU 4 − 3

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 18at MIL4 − 2W
Jun 17at MIL4 − 9L
Jun 16at MIL1 − 2L
Jun 13vs DET3 − 1W
Jun 12vs DET3 − 2W
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L
Jun 8vs NYY5 − 7L
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 17vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 16vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 15vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 14at KC0 − 4L
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W
Jun 12at KC10 − 8W
Jun 10at LAA2 − 3L
Jun 9at LAA1 − 10L
Jun 8at LAA5 − 4W
Jun 7vs ATH0 − 5L