bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final TOR 2 – CHC 16
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR001001000252
CHC7000045016180
Team box
TOR·CHC
5
hits
18
1
home runs
1
0
walks
11
7
strikeouts
4
209
pitches thrown
111
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson KellyCHC2-4316
George SpringerTOR2-4112
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-5202
Justin DeanCHC1-2103
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3-3101
Alex BregmanCHC1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR2.07743
Ben Brown (W)CHC6.04204

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +14
TOR +14
123456789
largest lead: CHC 14 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, CHC 52% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.4 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
8.6
Blue JaysThe matchupCubs
+108Our fair odds−108
4.2Expected runs4.4
+0.06Power rating+0.07
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game8.2
0.99Home runs / game1.16
2.8Walks drawn / game4.3
37−38Season record39−36
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHC chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10848%+10548.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−10852%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.2our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CHCBen Brown RP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHC
Jun 18 at BOS
last game
Jun 17 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
TOR·CHC
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
37−38
season record
39−36
21−18
home record
22−16
16−20
away record
17−20
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.2
0.99
home runs / game
1.16
2.8
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.59
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

TOR · CHC · 86 days
Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Aug 14, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
Aug 13, 2025at TORCHC 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at CHCTOR 1 − 0
Aug 17, 2024at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Aug 16, 2024at CHCCHC 6 − 5
Aug 13, 2023at TORTOR 11 − 4
Aug 12, 2023at TORCHC 5 − 4
Aug 11, 2023at TORCHC 6 − 2
Aug 31, 2022at TORCHC 7 − 5

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 18at BOS4 − 3W
Jun 17at BOS3 − 0W
Jun 16at BOS6 − 1W
Jun 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Jun 13vs NYY1 − 3L
Jun 12vs NYY8 − 5W
Jun 10vs PHI4 − 7L
Jun 9vs PHI3 − 2W
Jun 8vs PHI2 − 5L
Jun 7vs BAL6 − 4W

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L
Jun 9at COL3 − 7L
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L