bayesRatings

Cubs at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CHC 3 – COL 7
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC001002000380
COL232000007120
Team box
CHC·COL
8
hits
12
1
home runs
2
4
walks
6
6
strikeouts
4
127
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edouard JulienCOL2-4103
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-3212
Michael BuschCHC1-3111
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-4111
Alex BregmanCHC2-3101
Willi CastroCOL3-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin Rea (L)CHC4.29732
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL5.06323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: COL 6 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 65%, COL 35% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
CHC by 2.2
Expected score
CHC 6.7 – 4.5 COL
Expected total
11.2
CubsThe matchupRockies
−189Our fair odds+189
6.7Expected runs4.5
+0.09Power rating−0.61
4.6Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game5.8
8.1Hits / game8.3
1.12Home runs / game0.92
4.3Walks drawn / game3.1
34−32Season record24−42
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · COL chance
Our model fair65.4%34.6%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−18965%−16862.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+18935%+13442.7%———
SpreadCHC by 2.2
CHCChicago Cubs−2.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 2.2 expected
Chicago Cubs by 19 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 18 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 17 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCOL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more54%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 12 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·COL
Jun 7 vs SF
last game
Jun 7 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
CHC·COL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.61
4.6
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.8
34−32
season record
24−42
20−15
home record
12−19
14−17
away record
12−23
L1
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.3
1.12
home runs / game
0.92
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.42
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CHC · COL · 76 days
Chicago CubsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Aug 31, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2025at COLCHC 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at COLCHC 11 − 7
May 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 27, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
May 26, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Sep 15, 2024at COLCHC 6 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 5
Sep 13, 2024at COLCOL 9 − 5
Apr 3, 2024at CHCCHC 9 − 8

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W
Jun 5vs SF3 − 18L
Jun 4vs ATH7 − 6W
Jun 3vs ATH4 − 5L
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L
Jun 2at LAA8 − 2W
Jun 1at LAA9 − 8W
May 31vs SF6 − 19L
May 30vs SF8 − 3W
May 29vs SF8 − 6W
May 27at LAD1 − 4L