bayesRatings

Giants at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 7:30 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final SF 2 – CHC 1
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SF1000000001241
CHC0010000000170
Team box
SF·CHC
4
hits
7
0
home runs
0
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
10
154
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt ChapmanSF2-3001
Moises BallesterosCHC1-2001
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-4001
Carson KellyCHC1-4100
Ian HappCHC1-4000
Nico HoernerCHC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor McDonaldSF5.04136
Keaton Winn (W)SF1.01011
Dylan Smith (S)SF1.00001
Jameson TaillonCHC1.02122
Trent Thornton (L)CHC1.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
SF +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHC 0 · SF 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.7 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.8
GiantsThe matchupCubs
+126Our fair odds−126
4.1Expected runs4.7
−0.08Power rating+0.09
4.2Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game4.6
9.0Hits / game8.1
1.02Home runs / game1.14
2.2Walks drawn / game4.3
26−39Season record34−31
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12644%+10548.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12656%−12655.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CHC
Jun 6 at CHC
last game
Jun 6 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
SF·CHC
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.2
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.6
26−39
season record
34−31
12−16
home record
20−14
14−23
away record
14−17
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
8.1
1.02
home runs / game
1.14
2.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.68
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

SF · CHC · 74 days
San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 3−7
Jun 6at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Jun 5at CHCSF 18 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at SFSF 12 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SFSF 5 − 2
May 7, 2025at CHCSF 3 − 1
May 6, 2025at CHCSF 14 − 5
May 5, 2025at CHCCHC 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2024at SFCHC 5 − 3
Jun 26, 2024at SFSF 4 − 3

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 6at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 5at CHC18 − 3W
Jun 4at MIL12 − 9W
Jun 3at MIL1 − 0W
Jun 2at MIL3 − 8L
Jun 1at MIL2 − 16L
May 31at COL19 − 6W
May 30at COL3 − 8L
May 29at COL6 − 8L
May 27vs ARI2 − 3L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W
Jun 5vs SF3 − 18L
Jun 4vs ATH7 − 6W
Jun 3vs ATH4 − 5L
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W
May 27at PIT10 − 4W