bayesRatings

Giants at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final SF 18 – CHC 3
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF20061700218190
CHC000001020380
Team box
SF·CHC
19
hits
8
7
home runs
1
2
walks
6
9
strikeouts
7
154
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt ChapmanSF2-3228
Casey SchmittSF4-6323
Willy AdamesSF2-2424
Jonah CoxSF3-3211
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-1211
Carson KellyCHC2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie Ray (W)SF5.02054
Edward Cabrera (L)CHC3.28816

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +16
SF +16
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · SF 16lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.7
GiantsThe matchupCubs
+130Our fair odds−130
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.10Power rating+0.11
4.0Runs / game4.7
5.0Allowed / game4.4
8.9Hits / game8.1
0.92Home runs / game1.13
2.2Walks drawn / game4.3
25−38Season record33−30
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+13043%+14640.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13057%−17563.6%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 10.22 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CHC
Jun 4 at MIL
last game
Jun 4 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
SF·CHC
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.0
runs / game
4.7
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
25−38
season record
33−30
12−16
home record
19−13
13−22
away record
14−17
W2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.9
hits / game
8.1
0.92
home runs / game
1.13
2.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.68
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SF · CHC · 72 days
San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 2−8
Aug 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at SFSF 12 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SFSF 5 − 2
May 7, 2025at CHCSF 3 − 1
May 6, 2025at CHCSF 14 − 5
May 5, 2025at CHCCHC 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2024at SFCHC 5 − 3
Jun 26, 2024at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 25, 2024at SFSF 5 − 1
Jun 24, 2024at SFSF 5 − 4

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Jun 4at MIL12 − 9W
Jun 3at MIL1 − 0W
Jun 2at MIL3 − 8L
Jun 1at MIL2 − 16L
May 31at COL19 − 6W
May 30at COL3 − 8L
May 29at COL6 − 8L
May 27vs ARI2 − 3L
May 26vs ARI5 − 7L
May 25vs ARI2 − 6L

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 4vs ATH7 − 6W
Jun 3vs ATH4 − 5L
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W
May 27at PIT10 − 4W
May 26at PIT1 − 12L
May 25at PIT1 − 2L