bayesRatings

Rockies at Cubs

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final COL 4 – CHC 5
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000001030471
CHC1000010125100
Team box
COL·CHC
7
hits
10
1
home runs
1
4
walks
9
9
strikeouts
8
186
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC4-4112
Cole CarriggCOL1-3114
Matt ShawCHC2-4102
Pedro RamirezCHC2-2001
Alex BregmanCHC2-4000
Willi CastroCOL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael LorenzenCOL5.05115
Juan Mejia (L)COL0.10121
Shota ImanagaCHC5.25113
Daniel Palencia (W)CHC1.00013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · COL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 33%, CHC 67% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
CHC by 1.9
Expected score
CHC 5.8 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.7
RockiesThe matchupCubs
+199Our fair odds−199
3.9Expected runs5.8
−0.55Power rating+0.07
4.6Runs / game4.6
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.15
3.1Walks drawn / game4.2
27−45Season record37−35
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair33.5%66.5%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19933%+18135.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−19967%−21868.5%———
SpreadCHC by 1.9
COLColorado Rockies+1.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more52%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CHC
Jun 14 at ATH
last game
Jun 14 at SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
COL·CHC
−0.55
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.6
runs / game
4.6
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
27−45
season record
37−35
14−20
home record
20−15
13−25
away record
17−20
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.15
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.61
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

COL · CHC · 82 days
Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Jun 11at COLCHC 9 − 3
Jun 10at COLCOL 3 − 2
Jun 9at COLCOL 7 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2025at COLCHC 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at COLCHC 11 − 7
May 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 27, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
May 26, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Sep 15, 2024at COLCHC 6 − 2

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L
Jun 9at COL3 − 7L
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W
Jun 5vs SF3 − 18L
Jun 4vs ATH7 − 6W