bayesRatings

Rockies at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 9:05 PM CT · Las Vegas Ballpark · Final COL 4 – ATH 6
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000004000472
ATH000022116100
Team box
COL·ATH
7
hits
10
1
home runs
2
1
walks
4
10
strikeouts
8
164
pitches thrown
123
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole CarriggCOL1-4113
Nick KurtzATH2-5111
Max MuncyATH2-4102
Shea LangeliersATH1-5111
Lawrence ButlerATH2-2101
TJ RumfieldCOL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean SullivanCOL3.02002
Zach Agnos (L)COL2.25322
Gage JumpATH5.05316
Mason Barnett (W)ATH1.21001
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.10002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 2 · COL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 36%, ATH 64% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
ATH by 1.3
Expected score
ATH 5.9 – 4.5 COL
Expected total
10.4
RockiesThe matchupAthletics
+175Our fair odds−175
4.5Expected runs5.9
−0.58Power rating−0.08
4.3Runs / game4.4
5.8Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.28
3.1Walks drawn / game3.8
26−43Season record33−35
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair36.3%63.7%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+17536%+18135.6%———
ATHAthletics−17564%−21868.5%———
SpreadATH by 1.3
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
ATHAthletics−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 1.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 8 runs: 3%Athletics by 9 runs: 2%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 13 runs: 1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more47%
Athletics wins by 3 or more37%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLSean Sullivan SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ATH
Jun 11 vs CHC
last game
Jun 10 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
COL·ATH
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.3
runs / game
4.4
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
26−43
season record
33−35
14−20
home record
13−18
12−23
away record
20−17
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.28
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.58
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

COL · ATH · 79 days
Colorado RockiesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Apr 6, 2025at COLCOL 12 − 5
Apr 5, 2025at COLATH 7 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at COLATH 6 − 3
May 23, 2024at ATHATH 10 − 9
May 22, 2024at ATHCOL 4 − 3
May 21, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2023at COLCOL 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2023at COLATH 11 − 3
Jul 28, 2023at COLATH 8 − 5
Jun 6, 2021at COLCOL 3 − 1

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L
Jun 2at LAA8 − 2W
Jun 1at LAA9 − 8W
May 31vs SF6 − 19L

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L