bayesRatings

Cubs at Rockies

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CHC 9 – COL 3
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0004202109100
COL0011000013120
Team box
CHC·COL
10
hits
12
3
home runs
3
3
walks
2
8
strikeouts
11
144
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett SullivanCOL3-4222
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-4114
Alex BregmanCHC1-4212
Cole CarriggCOL2-4111
Carson KellyCHC1-4111
Michael BuschCHC2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Edward Cabrera (W)CHC5.15225
Ryan Feltner (L)COL4.14633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · CHC 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 63%, COL 37% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
CHC by 2.0
Expected score
CHC 6.5 – 4.5 COL
Expected total
11.0
CubsThe matchupRockies
−174Our fair odds+174
6.5Expected runs4.5
+0.06Power rating−0.56
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.12Home runs / game0.94
4.3Walks drawn / game3.1
34−34Season record26−42
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · COL chance
Our model fair63.5%36.5%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−17463%−15460.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+17437%+12444.7%———
SpreadCHC by 2.0
CHCChicago Cubs−2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 2.0 expected
Chicago Cubs by 18 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 17 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCOL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more53%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more43%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 9.53 ERA, 10 Kstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·COL
Jun 10 at COL
last game
Jun 10 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
CHC·COL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.56
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.7
34−34
season record
26−42
20−15
home record
14−19
14−19
away record
12−23
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.12
home runs / game
0.94
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.41
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CHC · COL · 78 days
Chicago CubsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Jun 10at COLCOL 3 − 2
Jun 9at COLCOL 7 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2025at COLCHC 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at COLCHC 11 − 7
May 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 27, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
May 26, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Sep 15, 2024at COLCHC 6 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 5

CHC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L
Jun 9at COL3 − 7L
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W
Jun 5vs SF3 − 18L
Jun 4vs ATH7 − 6W
Jun 3vs ATH4 − 5L
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L
Jun 2at LAA8 − 2W
Jun 1at LAA9 − 8W
May 31vs SF6 − 19L
May 30vs SF8 − 3W