bayesRatings

Cubs at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 9:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final CHC 6 – SF 1
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC1021200006110
SF001000000171
Team box
CHC·SF
11
hits
7
3
home runs
0
4
walks
4
12
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
187
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3-5211
Pedro RamirezCHC2-5111
Ian HappCHC1-5111
Michael BuschCHC1-3101
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-2001
Rafael DeversSF2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ben Brown (W)CHC5.07133
Trevor McDonald (L)SF3.26434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · CHC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, SF 48% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
9.0
CubsThe matchupGiants
−110Our fair odds+110
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.09
4.6Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.9
1.14Home runs / game1.03
4.3Walks drawn / game2.3
36−34Season record28−42
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · SF chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11052%−12154.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11048%+10149.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySF wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCBen Brown RP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 0.98 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·SF
Jun 12 at SF
last game
Jun 12 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
CHC·SF
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.6
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
36−34
season record
28−42
20−15
home record
13−19
16−19
away record
15−23
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.9
1.14
home runs / game
1.03
4.3
walks drawn / game
2.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.43
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

CHC · SF · 80 days
Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 7−3
Jun 12at SFCHC 5 − 1
Jun 7at CHCSF 2 − 1
Jun 6at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Jun 5at CHCSF 18 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at SFSF 12 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SFSF 5 − 2
May 7, 2025at CHCSF 3 − 1
May 6, 2025at CHCSF 14 − 5
May 5, 2025at CHCCHC 9 − 2

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L
Jun 9at COL3 − 7L
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W
Jun 5vs SF3 − 18L
Jun 4vs ATH7 − 6W
Jun 3vs ATH4 − 5L
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 12vs CHC1 − 5L
Jun 10vs WSH11 − 10W
Jun 9vs WSH3 − 6L
Jun 8vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 7at CHC2 − 1W
Jun 6at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 5at CHC18 − 3W
Jun 4at MIL12 − 9W
Jun 3at MIL1 − 0W
Jun 2at MIL3 − 8L