bayesRatings

Nationals at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final WSH 10 – SF 11
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH00200430110140
SF00000105511140
Team box
WSH·SF
14
hits
14
2
home runs
4
1
walks
4
6
strikeouts
7
174
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt ChapmanSF4-5323
Bryce EldridgeSF1-4214
Daylen LileWSH4-5102
Curtis MeadWSH2-5211
James WoodWSH1-4212
Rafael DeversSF1-4211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster GriffinWSH6.06105
Mitchell Parker (L)WSH0.02200
Robbie RaySF5.27503
Reiver Sanmartin (W)SF2.02102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +8
WSH +8
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · WSH 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 49%, SF 51% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupGiants
+105Our fair odds−105
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating−0.09
5.3Runs / game4.1
5.2Allowed / game4.9
8.4Hits / game8.9
1.28Home runs / game0.99
3.6Walks drawn / game2.3
35−33Season record27−41
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · SF chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+10549%−10751.8%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10551%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
SFSan Francisco GiantsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·SF
Jun 9 at SF
last game
Jun 9 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
WSH·SF
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.3
runs / game
4.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.9
35−33
season record
27−41
12−20
home record
12−18
23−13
away record
15−23
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.9
1.28
home runs / game
0.99
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.85
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

WSH · SF · 77 days
Washington NationalsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Jun 9at SFWSH 6 − 3
Jun 8at SFWSH 4 − 3
Apr 19at WSHWSH 3 − 0
Apr 18at WSHSF 7 − 6
Apr 17at WSHSF 10 − 5
Aug 10, 2025at SFWSH 8 − 0
Aug 9, 2025at SFWSH 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2025at SFSF 5 − 0
May 25, 2025at WSHSF 3 − 2
May 24, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 0

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W
Jun 5at ARI14 − 1W
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 9vs WSH3 − 6L
Jun 8vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 7at CHC2 − 1W
Jun 6at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 5at CHC18 − 3W
Jun 4at MIL12 − 9W
Jun 3at MIL1 − 0W
Jun 2at MIL3 − 8L
Jun 1at MIL2 − 16L
May 31at COL19 − 6W