bayesRatings

Nationals at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 2:15 PM CT · Chase Field · Final WSH 1 – ARI 5
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH010000000130
ARI10012010590
Team box
WSH·ARI
3
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
4
144
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4112
Corbin CarrollARI1-3211
CJ AbramsWSH1-4111
Pavin SmithARI1-2001
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4000
Ryan WaldschmidtARI1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (L)WSH5.07412
Michael Soroka (W)ARI7.03126

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, ARI 54% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 5.3 – 5.1 WSH
Expected total
10.4
NationalsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+115Our fair odds−115
5.1Expected runs5.3
−0.08Power rating+0.00
5.4Runs / game4.3
5.3Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.0
1.31Home runs / game0.88
3.6Walks drawn / game2.9
33−32Season record33−31
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11546%+10947.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11554%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 22 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ARI
Jun 6 at ARI
last game
Jun 6 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
WSH·ARI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.4
runs / game
4.3
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
33−32
season record
33−31
12−20
home record
20−14
21−12
away record
13−17
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.0
1.31
home runs / game
0.88
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.85
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

WSH · ARI · 74 days
Washington NationalsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Jun 6at ARIWSH 6 − 1
Jun 5at ARIWSH 14 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at ARIARI 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ARIWSH 11 − 7
May 30, 2025at ARIWSH 9 − 7
Apr 6, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 4, 2025at WSHARI 6 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2024at ARIARI 17 − 0

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W
Jun 5at ARI14 − 1W
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W
May 29vs SD5 − 7L
May 27at CLE2 − 3L
May 26at CLE6 − 3W

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W