bayesRatings

Nationals at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final WSH 14 – ARI 1
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH20401501114161
ARI001000000160
Team box
WSH·ARI
16
hits
6
5
home runs
1
7
walks
0
7
strikeouts
7
129
pitches thrown
172
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-6226
Daylen LileWSH3-6212
Jorbit VivasWSH2-5003
CJ AbramsWSH2-4211
James WoodWSH2-4311
Aramis GarciaARI1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (W)WSH5.02104
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI5.06734

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +13
WSH +13
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · WSH 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, ARI 55% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
ARI by 0.5
Expected score
ARI 5.4 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
10.3
NationalsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+124Our fair odds−124
4.9Expected runs5.4
−0.12Power rating+0.03
5.3Runs / game4.5
5.4Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.1
1.24Home runs / game0.89
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
31−32Season record33−29
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ARI chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12445%+10548.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−12455%−13156.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.5
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more41%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ARI
Jun 3 vs MIA
last game
Jun 4 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
WSH·ARI
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.3
runs / game
4.5
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
31−32
season record
33−29
12−20
home record
20−12
19−12
away record
13−17
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.1
1.24
home runs / game
0.89
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.84
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

WSH · ARI · 72 days
Washington NationalsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Jun 1, 2025at ARIARI 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ARIWSH 11 − 7
May 30, 2025at ARIWSH 9 − 7
Apr 6, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 4, 2025at WSHARI 6 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2024at ARIARI 17 − 0
Jul 29, 2024at ARIARI 9 − 8
Jun 20, 2024at WSHARI 5 − 2

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W
May 29vs SD5 − 7L
May 27at CLE2 − 3L
May 26at CLE6 − 3W
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W