bayesRatings

Nationals at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final WSH 6 – SF 3
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH200010201691
SF000020001391
Team box
WSH·SF
9
hits
9
1
home runs
1
5
walks
7
11
strikeouts
6
177
pitches thrown
190
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce EldridgeSF2-3111
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-3112
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-5002
James WoodWSH3-5201
Daylen LileWSH1-2002
Luis ArraezSF2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AlvarezWSH4.05254
Brad Lord (W)WSH2.23021
Adrian Houser (L)SF4.14306

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, SF 52% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupGiants
+106Our fair odds−106
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating−0.08
5.3Runs / game4.1
5.2Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game8.9
1.28Home runs / game0.99
3.5Walks drawn / game2.2
34−33Season record27−40
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · SF chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+10648%−11252.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10652%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
SFSan Francisco GiantsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more36%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·SF
Jun 8 at SF
last game
Jun 8 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
WSH·SF
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.3
runs / game
4.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.8
34−33
season record
27−40
12−20
home record
12−17
22−13
away record
15−23
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.9
1.28
home runs / game
0.99
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.85
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

WSH · SF · 76 days
Washington NationalsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Jun 8at SFWSH 4 − 3
Apr 19at WSHWSH 3 − 0
Apr 18at WSHSF 7 − 6
Apr 17at WSHSF 10 − 5
Aug 10, 2025at SFWSH 8 − 0
Aug 9, 2025at SFWSH 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2025at SFSF 5 − 0
May 25, 2025at WSHSF 3 − 2
May 24, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 0
May 23, 2025at WSHSF 4 − 0

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W
Jun 5at ARI14 − 1W
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L
Jun 2vs MIA3 − 7L
Jun 1vs MIA3 − 7L
May 31vs SD4 − 2W
May 30vs SD9 − 4W
May 29vs SD5 − 7L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 8vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 7at CHC2 − 1W
Jun 6at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 5at CHC18 − 3W
Jun 4at MIL12 − 9W
Jun 3at MIL1 − 0W
Jun 2at MIL3 − 8L
Jun 1at MIL2 − 16L
May 31at COL19 − 6W
May 30at COL3 − 8L