bayesRatings

Rockies at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 9:05 PM CT · Las Vegas Ballpark · Final COL 5 – ATH 7
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL001130000581
ATH200203007110
Team box
COL·ATH
8
hits
11
1
home runs
1
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
6
154
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zack GelofATH2-4212
Brett SullivanCOL1-3112
Alika WilliamsATH3-3101
Jacob WilsonATH1-4002
Troy JohnstonCOL2-3001
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Freeland (L)COL5.210604
Joey EstesATH4.15414
Jose Suarez (W)ATH1.22120
Elvis Alvarado (S)ATH1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 2 · COL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 36%, ATH 64% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
ATH by 1.3
Expected score
ATH 5.8 – 4.5 COL
Expected total
10.3
RockiesThe matchupAthletics
+180Our fair odds−180
4.5Expected runs5.8
−0.59Power rating−0.07
4.3Runs / game4.4
5.8Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.29
3.1Walks drawn / game3.8
26−44Season record34−35
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair35.8%64.2%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18036%+12943.7%———
ATHAthletics−18064%−15460.7%———
SpreadATH by 1.3
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
ATHAthletics−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 1.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 4 runs: 7%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 8 runs: 3%Athletics by 9 runs: 2%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 13 runs: 1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more47%
Athletics wins by 3 or more37%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 9.82 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATHJoey Estes SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 11.25 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ATH
Jun 12 at ATH
last game
Jun 12 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
COL·ATH
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.3
runs / game
4.4
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
26−44
season record
34−35
14−20
home record
14−18
12−24
away record
20−17
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.29
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.60
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

COL · ATH · 80 days
Colorado RockiesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Jun 12at ATHATH 6 − 4
Apr 6, 2025at COLCOL 12 − 5
Apr 5, 2025at COLATH 7 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at COLATH 6 − 3
May 23, 2024at ATHATH 10 − 9
May 22, 2024at ATHCOL 4 − 3
May 21, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2023at COLCOL 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2023at COLATH 11 − 3
Jul 28, 2023at COLATH 8 − 5

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L
Jun 3at LAA4 − 11L
Jun 2at LAA8 − 2W
Jun 1at LAA9 − 8W

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W