bayesRatings

Rockies at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final COL 5 – CHC 2
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000320000560
CHC110000000270
Team box
COL·CHC
6
hits
7
1
home runs
1
6
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
156
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4112
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-5111
Willi CastroCOL1-3102
Jake McCarthyCOL3-5100
Miguel AmayaCHC2-3000
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan FeltnerCOL4.26237
Blas Castano (W)COL1.10001
Jaden Hill (S)COL1.00000
Edward Cabrera (L)CHC4.13523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 2 · COL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 33%, CHC 67% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
CHC by 1.9
Expected score
CHC 5.8 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.7
RockiesThe matchupCubs
+202Our fair odds−202
3.9Expected runs5.8
−0.56Power rating+0.07
4.6Runs / game4.6
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.15
3.1Walks drawn / game4.3
27−46Season record38−35
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair33.1%66.9%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+20233%+17336.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−20267%−21868.5%———
SpreadCHC by 1.9
COLColorado Rockies+1.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more52%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 8.25 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CHC
Jun 15 at CHC
last game
Jun 15 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
COL·CHC
−0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.6
runs / game
4.6
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
27−46
season record
38−35
14−20
home record
21−15
13−26
away record
17−20
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.15
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.62
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

COL · CHC · 83 days
Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Jun 15at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Jun 11at COLCHC 9 − 3
Jun 10at COLCOL 3 − 2
Jun 9at COLCOL 7 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2025at COLCHC 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at COLCHC 11 − 7
May 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 27, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
May 26, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L
Jun 11vs CHC3 − 9L
Jun 10vs CHC3 − 2W
Jun 9vs CHC7 − 3W
Jun 7vs MIL4 − 12L
Jun 6vs MIL1 − 7L
Jun 5vs MIL7 − 9L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L
Jun 9at COL3 − 7L
Jun 7vs SF1 − 2L
Jun 6vs SF3 − 2W
Jun 5vs SF3 − 18L